Australia’s political landscape: Winter 2024
9 September 2024
We are now firmly in minority government territory.
The Labor vote has declined slightly, with a small increase in inner city areas offset by a larger drop in suburban and regional electorates.
The Coalition primary vote is up approximately two points. This has resulted in a near tie on a two-party basis, with Labor just slightly ahead.
This is resulting in seat gains for the Coalition in the House of Representatives, largely at the expense of the Labor Party, but also potentially from the Community Independents that won seats off the Liberal Party at the last election.
Electorates held by Labor in the regions and the edges of the big cities look especially vulnerable. Gilmore, Paterson, Lingiari and Lyons in particular; but also Robertson, Dobell and Hunter. Some suburban electorates held by Labor also look at risk. These include Bennelong, McEwen, Chisholm, Tangney, Bullwinkel,^[A new seat from the redistribution, nominally Labor.] Bruce and Aston.^[Aston was won by the Coalition in 2022, but then by Labor in a by-election in 2023. It looks likely to go back to the Liberal Party if an election were held now.]
Labor has opportunities to gain some seats in the suburbs of Sydney Melbourne and Brisbane: Hughes, Casey and Forde. But these are all too close to call at present, and except for Casey, look likely to be retained by the Coalition.
The Coalition also looks competitive to win back Goldstein and Curtin from the Community Independents that won them in 2022. However, Cowper appears at risk of being lost to an Independent, and Wannon is estimated to be close.
However, despite these gains, this is unlikely enough to make the Coalition the largest bloc in parliament. Based on these results, the Liberal and National parties are estimated to be on track to win between 61 and 73 seats in the House of Representatives, with 68 seats being the most likely estimated outcome.
Labor remains the favourite to win the largest share of seats in parliament, with a predicted range of 65 to 75, with a median estimate of 69 seats.
The composition of the cross bench also makes it easier for Labor to form a working majority in the House. The Greens are estimated to be on track to win between two and five seats (with a median prediction of three), while all other parties and candidates are estimated to win between eight and 13 (with a median prediction of 10).
The full results, and details on the methodology, are available below.